Several people on the forum are already aware of the theory that Mary is based on the character of Birdy Edwards from The Valley of Fear, and came up with it long before I did. It has been discussed in many other threads, but the idea didn't come to my attention until I read the story for myself a few months ago.

Anyway, I'm repeating a lot of what has already been said elsewhere, but I thought I'd start a new topic to bring all the evidence together.

If you haven't read ACD's The Valley of Fear, you can find it online here (Project Gutenberg text) and here (audiobook on YouTube) or you can read a summary here.

At the beginning of the story, Holmes receives an encrypted message from "Fred Porlock", an agent of Moriarty's who occasionally sends Holmes insider information about the consulting criminal's network.

(Compare this with the ending of HLV: a cryptic message, seemingly from Moriarty, but he is dead, so it must be from someone else; perhaps an associate.)

There is supposed to be a second message which will contain the key to deciphering the first message, but instead the message from Porlock states that he is afraid of Moriarty and will not reveal the information.

However, Holmes soon deciphers it anyway, and discovers that a man called John Douglas of Birlstone is in danger.

A Scotland Yard Inspector visits Baker Street and asks for Holmes' help in a case. Douglas was found murdered that morning, shot in the head in his home. A friend and frequent guest of Douglas, Cecil Barker, was staying with him at the time. Barker and Mrs Douglas claim they heard the gunshot and rushed in to find Douglas dead. It turns out they are hiding Douglas alive and well in the house, that it was in fact his attacker who was killed and they made it look like it was Douglas. The story comes out about the true identity of Douglas.

John Douglas is actually Birdy Edwards, an American who was once a Pinkerton detective who infiltrated and brought down a murderous gang called the Scowrers. He fled to England five years ago to escape their revenge. He changed his name, started a new life, remarried (his first wife had died) and tried to lie low.

(Mary Morstan has a secret past. She once worked for the FBI/CIA but went freelance. We know her real initials are A.G.R.A. She took the name Mary Elizabeth Morstan from the headstone of a stillborn baby and claims she is an orphan with no other family. She possibly affects an English accent to cover the fact that she is not British. She became a nurse, met and married John. Mary Morstan is a façade, and she will do anything to keep the truth from coming out.)

Edwards/Douglas posed as Jack McMurdo and gained the respect and trust of the head of the Scowrers. He was branded with a symbol which identified him as a member of the secret criminal organisation. Although he was a Pinkerton detective, Douglas had to do many terrible, violent things to maintain his reputation in the gang. Sometimes Douglas would be ordered to kill someone but he would do his best to help them get away from the gang. He still committed many violent acts so as not to blow his own cover. He also had to lie to the woman he loved.

(Sherlock deduced that Mary has a secret tattoo. Mary went rogue from the CIA and killed many people. Magnussen says she was "wicked". CAM threatened to reveal her past life and she would have killed him and Sherlock to keep the truth from John. According to Sherlock, Mary shot him intending only to wound him, not to kill him, and then called an ambulance.)

Cecil Barker later became Douglas's friend and confidante. (Mary knows all about needing a confidante. Does she have one?)

At the end of The Valley of Fear, Holmes urges Douglas to leave England to escape from his enemies. He takes this advice and leaves on a boat to Africa, but is mysteriously lost overboard. Holmes later receives a message which indicates that Moriarty was consulted by the Scowrers and arranged for Douglas' death. (It's fairly likely that Mary Watson will die in s4, as per canon.)

This version of Mary's past would somewhat redeem her character for some of us (for others, maybe not). And if The Valley of Fear is to be adapted for s4, we might get a new villain in the form of Scowrers Boss, Bodymaster McGinty.

Last edited by ukaunz (February 26, 2016 6:28 am)