I think there's a possibility that has never been mentioned by anyone yet. What Mycroft says at the end of HLV:  "I am not given to outbursts of brotherly compassion, you know what happened to the other one" could mean something totally different from what we expect. The theories I've read about so far are base on the fact that something happened to a third Holmes brother because of Mycroft. I believe that what happened is the opposite: the third brother felt compassion towards Sherlock (probably at the time when he was abusing drugs), and something bad happened to him because of that. I imagine he tried to help Sherlock, while Mycroft wanted Sherlock to sort things out on his own...

In my opinion, Season 4 is based on two different "stories": Sherlock's past, and the new villain. Sherlock won't be able to work on his new cases because of his past resurfacing. Also, judging from the trailer, I believe that the new villain has something to do with Mary's past, hence her getting her hands dirty again. 
I'm still working on the details of my theory, but you've got a pretty good idea of what I expect from the next season. 



This could be Sherlock realizing what he's done when he was high. 

Last edited by Ewilan (August 21, 2016 9:43 am)

I hadn't thought of looking at Mycroft's words that way, but it certainly fits.  And would mean that Sherlock's trauma/secret is that he was indirectly responsible for the death/destruction of his brother.   The thing that would make me doubt that is his attitude towards Mycroft - you'd expect him to be more sympathetic and protective towards an older brother if another brother had come to grief because of Sherlock's actions. 

However, it could be that Sherlock doesn't know about it (as you suggest with your picture of the possible revelatory moment!).   That shot is from Ep2 isn't it, and we're expecting Sherrinford in Ep3, aren't we?  But that doesn't mean s/he couldn't make an appearance in Ep2. 

nakahara wrote:

Maybe it´s a fake death? And Mary´s "replacement" is only temporary? 

I could see that. Par for the course.

besleybean wrote:

Well as has been indicated before, i.e unless Martin wants out, or because of scheduling, this is the only way the show can be kept alive...no, I really don't see it happening.
Amanda attends because she has the time to and likes these events, that's the way it seems to me.

Yes, the temporary thing would work for me.

The whole Mary replacing John thing won't happen. This is not Falco, this is Sherlock. I mean, I think it would be a great idea, but it will not happen. I don't believe that Martin wants out, and I don't thing Moffat and Gatiss want to kill John. He is one of the characters that is supposed to stay until the end of the show, unlike basically everybody else...

 I could see it being John's turn to come back from the dead... in s5! Think Sherlock will punch him?

I think there's too much #setlock with Martin in and too little #setlock with Amanda in for this scenario to be possible. I think it might be the baby that dies and Mary leaves because of that.Maybe John distances himself from Sherlock for a while.

I am still not sure that there is a Watson baby at all. But I do not think they will be going for a scenario in which the baby dies, the marriage fails, John is traumatised. This is not the kind of show they are writing. Look at Setlock Martin - he seems very competent, calm, concentrated. Not a hint of mourning husband and father.

Yes agree Susie. Especially in trailer where they are in the car together. I think there might be a bit of a time jump thing happening though. The John at the bus stop stuff.
I would prefer no baby at all but unsure how that could be.
Liking the idea that the end of HLV was not real and some kind of imagine the christmas dinners scenario best to be honest. 

I do not think Mary will die. In my opinion, she is Birdy Edwards from the Valley Of Fear, since it perfectly fits with what we know about her past so far. Mary will probably be in danger during season 4, but she will still be alive at the end of the season. But if her story is based on Edwards', she is meant to die at some point...

Birdy - undercover agent that did some bad stuff to bad guys to keep his cover seems quite respectable -  and doesn't seem to mesh with the blackmail worth killing and would send me to prison for life and you won't love me after - backstory.
Mary does seem to be quite a few personas behind the facade though.