No I tend to think Moriarty's suicide was a complete surprise to Sherlock.

Maybe not his suicide, but his not being present at the scene (maybe they anticipated a phone call instead of him showing up personally?) had to one of the 13 possibilities. Moriarty not being able to watch Sherlock jump was vital for Lazarus. Lazarus focuses solely on fooling John. Anyone else present at the scene at any position other that John’s at any given point in time during the execution of Lazarus would have been able to see the blue cushion. If Moriarty’s suicide was not anticipated, Lazarus was actually a very unlikely scenario. Lazarus only works if Moriarty can neither see what happens after Sherlock jumps off the roof – blue cushion - , nor be able to contact the sniper threatening John – silenced by Mycroft.

Then again, one other scenary included "Baritsu".

 

Last edited by Lola Red (January 17, 2015 5:08 pm)

If anybody's interested: link

Great work putting all that together, but it seems way, way too complicated to be realistic.