BBC Sherlock Fan Forum - Serving Sherlockians since February 2012 » What I think Happened

Pearl2525 · May 21, 2012 5:19 pm

I realize that all the “serious" Sherlock fans, American included, saw the conclusion to season two of Sherlock months ago, when it originally aired on the BBC or shortly thereafter. I, on the other hand, just saw it last night. So I come to this debate late. Nevertheless, having seen what is out there I wanted to offer my two cents. Here it is.

A: THINGS I AM SURE OF

1. Fact: Sherlock is not dead
Evidence: We see him at the cemetery
Inference: He death was staged (I know this is a given, but trying to be systematic here)

2. Fact: Sherlock had figured out Moriarty’s endgame (ie that he wanted him to committee suicide)
Evidence: He told Molly “I think I am going to die" this statement does not make sense unless he had figured out what Moriarty’s ultimate goal was.
Inferences: He had time to stage the fall, including picking the location, time and other circumstances.

3. Fact: Molly was involved in the staging
Evidence: He figures out Moriarty’s endgame right after the confrontation in the reporter’s apartment, when he says “There is only one more thing he needs to do to complete his game, and that is to…" He stops mid sentence and bee-lines it to Molly.
Inference: At the minimum Molly stage the autopsy. However, when Watson catches up with Sherlock at St. Barts Molly is nowhere to be seen. What is she up to?

4. Fact: Sherlock staged the phone call to Watson drawing him away to check on Mrs. Hudson.
Evidence: Sherlock’s seeming unconcern with Mrs. Hudson’s safety. The last time he feigned that it was a ruse to protect her from the bad guys holding her hostage. Clearly Sherlock cares about Mrs. Hudson, so if he pretend not too there is a reason.
Inference: Sherlock needed Watson away as he confronted Moriarty, and he had to control his arrival/ POV at the scene. (more on this below)

5. Fact: Sherlock planned Watsons POV.
Evidence: He knew Watson would rush to back to St. Barts as soon as he realized that Mrs. Watson was ok. He knew to do so he would hail a cab. Being Sherlock he would have calculated how long it would take him to return to St. Barts, and where he would be approaching from. As soon as Watson arrives on the scene Sherlock directs him where to stand, and then insists quite adamantly that Watson stay where he is and he look only at him.
Inference: Watsons POV and that he look only at Sherlock during the fall is critical to the staging. This POV ensured two things: Watson did not see Sherlock hit the ground, and he would take a few seconds for him to reach Sherlock after he landed. The latter was further prolonged by Watson’s encounter with the bicyclist.

6. Fact: The cyclist, people that gather around Sherlock when he landed and the EMTs that pick up his body are part of the plan.
Evidence: The cyclist controls Watsons timing, by running into him, and he also dazes him. The onlookers block the view of the body as Watson rushes over. The onlookers would have seen Sherlock land, so whatever method was used to stage the fall they would have likely seen it. Lastly, the onlookers hold Watson back and allow him only a brief moment to check Sherlock’s pulse.

B. THINGS THAT ARE VERY LIKELY:

7. Fact: Sherlock wore something to cushion the fall or was caught in a net below.
Evidence: Well obviously he did not die so he either used cable of some kind, did not really jump off the roof – meaning something or someone else did - he cushioned the fall or was caught. Cable is a possibility, but cushioning is hinted at when Sherlock is playing with the rubber ball, although the Henry Fishgard dummy earlier in the episode does hint at a cable, but still I think the most likely is cushioning or a net. The arm flailing makes it unlikely that a dummy or dead Moriarty were tossed from the roof. Further, as he runs to the roof he make sure to take his coat. Why other than to conceal something?
Inference: Either there was something on the ground for him to land on, he wore something to cushion the fall or was caught in a net. Any of the last three methods would not be that hard to pull off, especially for Sherlock et all.

8. Fact: Mycroft is in on it.
Evidence: At the end of “The Hounds" Mycroft lets Moriarty go, having captured and interrogated him. Moriarty leaves his interrogation room covered with writing of the word “Sherlock" over and over. In “The Fall" Mycroft confirms he knew about Moriarty’s key code, he was unsuccessful in getting info about it, and he knew and used Moriarty’s obsession with Sherlock to try, unsuccessfully to get it.
Inference: Having failed to extract the needed info directly Mycroft would have enlisted Sherlock’s help. He had in the past, why would that change? Also they both knew that Moriarty would come after Sherlock again, regardless, so why not use that fact to their advantage?

Further, Mycroft is a least as smart as Sherlock, no way he did not figure out that Moriarty would use whatever information he gave him about Sherlock to bring him down. So he used this against him, with Sherlock's consent/complicity and they fed him the information is such a way that it would backfire in the end. In all likelihood they gave him enough real info on Sherlock's background to make it credible but also a certain amount of misinformation so they could manipulate him and in the end disprove any claims he made based on it.

Ok, so those are the facts/clues as I see them To summarize, here is what I think happened:

Mycroft enlisted Sherlock’s help to find Moriarty’s key code probably a soon as he figures out the only way to get anything out of him was by telling him about Sherlock. They decide to let Moriarty go and wait for him to come after Sherlock and used that to extract the needed information. They let things play out until they can figure out Moriarty’s endgame. As soon as Sherlock does, right after the confrontation in the journalist’s apartment, they go into action.

Mycroft keeps Watson busy by “confessing" to having betrayed Sherlock to get Moriarty to talk. In the meantime Sherlock enlists Molly’s help. Arraignments with Molly in place, the brothers then set in place the bystanders and EMTs. They are either Sherlock’s homeless or Mycroft’s agents, or some combination of both.

When Watson first arrives at St. Barts Holmes/Mycroft send him running to check on Mrs. Hudson so Sherlock has time to summon Moriarty to the roof. By this time the brothers have worked out that the code that was tapped out by Moriarty while he is having tea with Sherlock. They have probably also figured out that it is useless. However, they still need to make sure Moriarty does not have a working code hidden someplace else and they need him to reveal how he was able to pull of the three break-ins. So Sherlock must have the confrontation on the rooftop to goaded the needed information from Moriarty.

They probably planned for a number of scenarios with the jump as a last resort. However, Sherlock ends up going through with it either to save his friends lives, or more likely to let everyone think Moriarty’s plan has worked so they can flush out the remainder of his organization and a dead Sherlock can help, unimpeded by his burgeoning fame. In all likelihood the brothers had already figured out that Moriarty would target Sherlock’s friends with snipers, since he did it before, and took precautions against it. Further, this would explain Sherlock’s remark to Watson in “The Hound" when he snaps “I have not friends" He may have been trying to protect Mrs Hudson etc by claiming to have no feelings for them.

So presumably next session will start with revealing conversations between Sherlock and Mycorft plus the rest of the conversation with Molly. Further we can expect Sherlock to explain to Watson, and though him us, why he had to stay dead for however long he does, and what he has been up to in the meantime.

The one thing I am not sure about is if Moriarty is really dead, I hope not; the way that character is written and acted is just brilliant.

If I missed anything would love the hear what it is...

Last edited by Pearl2525 (May 21, 2012 5:41 pm)

Davina · May 21, 2012 5:47 pm

The part where John is lured away by a fake telephone call is a nod at the original story of The Final Problem, where Dr. Watson is lured from the Reichenbach Falls by a letter concerning an English woman who is dying back down at the hotel. Of course it serves the purpose here of getting John well away from the hospital for Sherlock's showdown with Moriarty.

I see you have joined the madness that is the working out what has gone through the minds of Moffat, Gatiss and Thompson in the creation of the puzzle that is Sherlock's survival. This is, after all, also canon i.e. faithful to the original stories.

m0r1arty · May 21, 2012 6:10 pm

Nice run down Pearl2525,

I'm not sure all of your facts and concrete but you've certainly put a lot of thought and effort into making a good case for your theories.

-m0r

CarlPowers · May 21, 2012 8:09 pm

I enjoyed how Moffat describes what happened, when asked by a questioner in today's online chat--

chat: Describe in one word the story of how Sherlock faked his death.

Steven Moffat: Cleverly.

tobeornot221b · May 22, 2012 3:34 pm

Pearl2525 wrote:
Inference: Either there was something on the ground for him to land on, he wore something to cushion the fall or was caught in a net. Any of the last three methods would not be that hard to pull off, especially for Sherlock et all.

I haven't seen it being mentioned before (but I can't be everywhere then, can I?), but when I was last watching TRF something caught my eye.
Everyone seems to concentrate on the cyclist, the laundry truck and the (faked) paramedics.
But what about that big guy in grey with the black cap in front of the bench?
Is he just resting (he may have jumped out of one of the busses) because of a heavy "three bags problem"? Actually, he doesn't look that fragile!
Or is he about to place something in this area beneath that bench (just the spot Sherlock fell onto) and if so, WHAT?
Some equipment like a net isn't probable – the item in question is evenly spread over three bags. Maybe the guy himself acts as a cushion? He looks rather inflated to me…

Sherlock Holmes · May 22, 2012 9:03 pm

Hi Pearl - welcome to the forum and by the way, a really brilliant first post!

Your theory about what happened is very similar to mine really...and very well thought out, nice one!

sherlockskitty · May 22, 2012 9:55 pm

tobeornot221B--good eye, on spotting that guy in grey. But, Who is that guy who is standing in the white square, near sherlock's "corpse?" see him? and Pearl, brilliant deductions.

Yeah, I believe Mycroft had a hand in sherlock's "death" as well as Molly.

Here's another thought---when Mrs. Hudson and John went to Sherlock's grave, Mrs Hudson left, and then John left the gravesite too. THEN we see Sherlock, alive and sad. BUT he wasn't hiding behind anything, so I think that John could have seen Sherlock in the corner of his eye!!

kazza474 · May 23, 2012 3:42 am

Hiya, I haven't posted yet as I haven't had time to read through it all.
But as everyone here knows, I'll pop back soon enough with my thoughts.

Ok, so I have a big 'mouth' and enjoy 'sharing thoughts openly'. Be forewarned & don't take offence, lol. I'm just an old woman who speaks her mind but means no harm to anyone. Certainly gets people 'coming outta their shell' more that way anyway.

kazza474 · May 23, 2012 7:25 am

ok I have a few minutes to systematically point out one or two things.

4. Fact: Sherlock staged the phone call to Watson drawing him away to check on Mrs. Hudson.
Evidence: Sherlock’s seeming unconcern with Mrs. Hudson’s safety. The last time he feigned that it was a ruse to protect her from the bad guys holding her hostage. Clearly Sherlock cares about Mrs. Hudson, so if he pretend not too there is a reason.
Inference: Sherlock needed Watson away as he confronted Moriarty, and he had to control his arrival/ POV at the scene. (more on this below)

I don't disagree, but also by this stage most people had decided that Sherlock was the bad guy, which was helpful to his plans of dying & disappearing. But John still believed in him. This was also an attempt at least to say to John " Look I am a heartless cruel machine".

6. Fact: The cyclist, people that gather around Sherlock when he landed and the EMTs that pick up his body are part of the plan.
Evidence: The cyclist controls Watsons timing, by running into him, and he also dazes him. The onlookers block the view of the body as Watson rushes over. The onlookers would have seen Sherlock land, so whatever method was used to stage the fall they would have likely seen it. Lastly, the onlookers hold Watson back and allow him only a brief moment to check Sherlock’s pulse.

Again, not disagreeing but also, to a certain point, we are seeing things from John's perspective.
He was knocked pretty hard, one wonders how much time really transpired between his being knocked over & his getting up again.

8. Fact: Mycroft is in on it.
Evidence: At the end of “The Hounds" Mycroft lets Moriarty go, having captured and interrogated him. Moriarty leaves his interrogation room covered with writing of the word “Sherlock" over and over. In “The Fall" Mycroft confirms he knew about Moriarty’s key code, he was unsuccessful in getting info about it, and he knew and used Moriarty’s obsession with Sherlock to try, unsuccessfully to get it.
Inference: Having failed to extract the needed info directly Mycroft would have enlisted Sherlock’s help. He had in the past, why would that change? Also they both knew that Moriarty would come after Sherlock again, regardless, so why not use that fact to their advantage?

Further, Mycroft is a least as smart as Sherlock, no way he did not figure out that Moriarty would use whatever information he gave him about Sherlock to bring him down. So he used this against him, with Sherlock's consent/complicity and they fed him the information is such a way that it would backfire in the end. In all likelihood they gave him enough real info on Sherlock's background to make it credible but also a certain amount of misinformation so they could manipulate him and in the end disprove any claims he made based on it.

I do believe that could be the case also.
The exchange between Mycroft & John when John sought him out was possibly Mycroft's way of softening the blow for John, preparing him for what was about to happen. He seems deep in thought when John leaves. I wonder, if that is the case, if he alerted Sherlock of the conversation soon afterwards?

I'll post more after I have read more. But I'm liking it so far.

Sammy · May 23, 2012 7:13 pm

Nice summary
I quite agree with your thoughts! Although "Fact 7", of course, is the thing we can only speculate on.

Hey, that guy in grey really looks suspicious! Would have been easy to pull something like a net or mattress out of the bags and put it there and then, after Sherlock fell on it, maybe throw it onto the garbage truck. But we can see him hit the ground... hmm.
Or maybe the guy is not suspicious at all and the Sherlock fandom is slowly going crazy xD

Sentimental Pulse · June 5, 2012 6:10 pm

Brilliant post Pearl. I am pretty well convinced that Mycroft is in on this, to what degree we can only speculate. There are couple of possible levels of game playing misdirection I can fathom.

If Sherlock and Mycroft are playing the ultimate long con, they may well have concluded long before anyone else that A.) Sherlock's fame has become a royal impediment (no pun intended) to his ability to sleuth, especially in matters of state. B.) They also surely know that Moriarty was going to dog Sherlock until the Final Problem was remediated to Moriarty's satisfaction.

Mycroft could have intentionally fed Moriarty either real or fake Sherlock backstory personal snippets to be used in the great Sherlock discrediting effort perfectly setting up the Sherlock and Mycroft desired fake suicide. Going undercover after the fake suicide is exactly what Mycroft and Sherlock need to allow Sherlock to unearth the rest of Moriarty's terror network. They also hope that once Sherlock emerges again publicly, if he ever does, he is likely not going to be universally adored as before and will be able to maneuver without paparazzi again.

It is also possible that Mycroft was really bamboozled by Moriarty into revealing the info that allowed Moriarty to discredit Sherlock. Once realized, Mycroft could have gone to Sherlock asking to aid him in anyway to go underground to effect the same result.

One thing I see as quite likely for next season is Watson being extremely angry at Sherlock once Sherlock returns and Watson realizes he was needlessly put through all this grief and betrayal. Don't expect Watson to faint and awake with everything being the way it was before as in the canon.

I think Watson will initially rejoice in seeing Sherlock and then just as quickly rebuff him. Sherlock will explain that he had to do this to protect Watson, Molly, Mrs. Hudson. But Watson will know that Sherlock, in plotting the fake suicide, went up to the roof knowing he had to jump regardless of motivation. Armed with that knowledge Watson will feel betrayed for not being let in on the scheme and will feel used and marginalized. Sherlock will be forced to dance to win Watson back over. I hope that is what happens anyway. I would love to see this conflict play out through part of next season.

Great topic.

Pearl2525 · January 20, 2014 8:01 am

Okay lets see how I did:

Pearl2525 wrote:
1. Fact: Sherlock is not dead
Evidence: We see him at the cemetery
Inference: He death was staged (I know this is a given, but trying to be systematic here)

RIGHT! (obviously)

Pearl2525 wrote:
2. Fact: Sherlock had figured out Moriarty’s endgame (ie that he wanted him to committee suicide)
Evidence: He told Molly “I think I am going to die" this statement does not make sense unless he had figured out what Moriarty’s ultimate goal was.
Inferences: He had time to stage the fall, including picking the location, time and other circumstances.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
3. Fact: Molly was involved in the staging
Evidence: He figures out Moriarty’s endgame right after the confrontation in the reporter’s apartment, when he says “There is only one more thing he needs to do to complete his game, and that is to…" He stops mid sentence and bee-lines it to Molly.
Inference: At the minimum Molly stage the autopsy. However, when Watson catches up with Sherlock at St. Barts Molly is nowhere to be seen. What is she up to?

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
4. Fact: Sherlock staged the phone call to Watson drawing him away to check on Mrs. Hudson.
Evidence: Sherlock’s seeming unconcern with Mrs. Hudson’s safety. The last time he feigned that it was a ruse to protect her from the bad guys holding her hostage. Clearly Sherlock cares about Mrs. Hudson, so if he pretend not too there is a reason.
Inference: Sherlock needed Watson away as he confronted Moriarty, and he had to control his arrival/ POV at the scene. (more on this below)

Not strickly speaking confirmed - but still think this is right

Pearl2525 wrote:
5. Fact: Sherlock planned Watsons POV.
Evidence: He knew Watson would rush to back to St. Barts as soon as he realized that Mrs. Watson was ok. He knew to do so he would hail a cab. Being Sherlock he would have calculated how long it would take him to return to St. Barts, and where he would be approaching from. As soon as Watson arrives on the scene Sherlock directs him where to stand, and then insists quite adamantly that Watson stay where he is and he look only at him.
Inference: Watsons POV and that he look only at Sherlock during the fall is critical to the staging. This POV ensured two things: Watson did not see Sherlock hit the ground, and he would take a few seconds for him to reach Sherlock after he landed. The latter was further prolonged by Watson’s encounter with the bicyclist.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
6. Fact: The cyclist, people that gather around Sherlock when he landed and the EMTs that pick up his body are part of the plan.
Evidence: The cyclist controls Watsons timing, by running into him, and he also dazes him. The onlookers block the view of the body as Watson rushes over. The onlookers would have seen Sherlock land, so whatever method was used to stage the fall they would have likely seen it. Lastly, the onlookers hold Watson back and allow him only a brief moment to check Sherlock’s pulse.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
7. Fact: Sherlock wore something to cushion the fall or was caught in a net below.
Evidence: Well obviously he did not die so he either used cable of some kind, did not really jump off the roof – meaning something or someone else did - he cushioned the fall or was caught. Cable is a possibility, but cushioning is hinted at when Sherlock is playing with the rubber ball, although the Henry Fishgard dummy earlier in the episode does hint at a cable, but still I think the most likely is cushioning or a net. The arm flailing makes it unlikely that a dummy or dead Moriarty were tossed from the roof. Further, as he runs to the roof he make sure to take his coat. Why other than to conceal something?
Inference: Either there was something on the ground for him to land on, he wore something to cushion the fall or was caught in a net. Any of the last three methods would not be that hard to pull off, especially for Sherlock et all.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
8. Fact: Mycroft is in on it.
Evidence: At the end of “The Hounds" Mycroft lets Moriarty go, having captured and interrogated him. Moriarty leaves his interrogation room covered with writing of the word “Sherlock" over and over. In “The Fall" Mycroft confirms he knew about Moriarty’s key code, he was unsuccessful in getting info about it, and he knew and used Moriarty’s obsession with Sherlock to try, unsuccessfully to get it.
Inference: Having failed to extract the needed info directly Mycroft would have enlisted Sherlock’s help. He had in the past, why would that change? Also they both knew that Moriarty would come after Sherlock again, regardless, so why not use that fact to their advantage?

Further, Mycroft is a least as smart as Sherlock, no way he did not figure out that Moriarty would use whatever information he gave him about Sherlock to bring him down. So he used this against him, with Sherlock's consent/complicity and they fed him the information is such a way that it would backfire in the end. In all likelihood they gave him enough real info on Sherlock's background to make it credible but also a certain amount of misinformation so they could manipulate him and in the end disprove any claims he made based on it.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
Mycroft enlisted Sherlock’s help to find Moriarty’s key code probably a soon as he figures out the only way to get anything out of him was by telling him about Sherlock. They decide to let Moriarty go and wait for him to come after Sherlock and used that to extract the needed information. They let things play out until they can figure out Moriarty’s endgame. As soon as Sherlock does, right after the confrontation in the journalist’s apartment, they go into action.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
Mycroft keeps Watson busy by “confessing" to having betrayed Sherlock to get Moriarty to talk. In the meantime Sherlock enlists Molly’s help. Arraignments with Molly in place, the brothers then set in place the bystanders and EMTs. They are either Sherlock’s homeless or Mycroft’s agents, or some combination of both.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
When Watson first arrives at St. Barts Holmes/Mycroft send him running to check on Mrs. Hudson so Sherlock has time to summon Moriarty to the roof. By this time the brothers have worked out that the code that was tapped out by Moriarty while he is having tea with Sherlock. They have probably also figured out that it is useless. However, they still need to make sure Moriarty does not have a working code hidden someplace else and they need him to reveal how he was able to pull of the three break-ins. So Sherlock must have the confrontation on the rooftop to goaded the needed information from Moriarty.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
They probably planned for a number of scenarios with the jump as a last resort. However, Sherlock ends up going through with it either to save his friends lives, or more likely to let everyone think Moriarty’s plan has worked so they can flush out the remainder of his organization and a dead Sherlock can help, unimpeded by his burgeoning fame. In all likelihood the brothers had already figured out that Moriarty would target Sherlock’s friends with snipers, since he did it before, and took precautions against it. Further, this would explain Sherlock’s remark to Watson in “The Hound" when he snaps “I have not friends" He may have been trying to protect Mrs Hudson etc by claiming to have no feelings for them.

RIGHT!

Pearl2525 wrote:
So presumably next session will start with revealing conversations between Sherlock and Mycorft plus the rest of the conversation with Molly. Further we can expect Sherlock to explain to Watson, and though him us, why he had to stay dead for however long he does, and what he has been up to in the meantime.

So seems like I nailed it - so why is there a big "Wrong!" written under my username to the left? just wondering....

Davina · January 20, 2014 11:22 am

The Wrong! Relates to the number of posts you have made on the forum. It is not a judgment of your accuracy or otherwise. A few more posts and you will escape its clutches. (It relates to A Study in Pink).

Bruce Cook · January 28, 2014 1:35 am

I somehow missed your wonderful post which analyzed Sherlock's suicide hoax brilliantly and in great detail many months ago. I joined the board in early 2014 after seeing Sherlock on Netflix.

Ironically I've been posting messages all over the place around here about how Sherlock did it, and it took me a lot longer to come up with my theory (which is basically your theory) than it took you.

Anyway, I just wanted to thank you for your hard work and brilliant thinking. I'm actually glad I didn't see your analysis until today, because I wouldn't have enjoyed feeling so clever if I'd followed in your footsteps.

Last edited by Bruce Cook (July 1, 2014 3:00 am)

Pearl2525 · January 28, 2014 5:06 pm

Thank you Bruce. I must admit I had mixed feelings with the reveal, nice to be right but also was hoping to be surprised. Then again, as Moffat and Gatiss have repeatedly said, there was only so many ways Sherlock could have pulled this off. As for the rest, it was based on the assumption that the characters would be consistent with their past behavior which, to their credit, the writers have very good at maintaining.